Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -333 EMU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +35 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -11.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -9.7 (+25.3) | 149.3 (+15.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -8.5 (+26.5) | 149.5 (+15.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -9.7 (+25.3) | 150.8 (+14.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -10.2 (+24.8) | 150.4 (+14.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | EMU 74 – 52 BALL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BALL 86 – 84 EMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | EMU 58 – 56 BALL |
| Jan 17, 2024 | BALL 76 – 62 EMU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | EMU 75 – 68 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-13 | 6-12 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 3-11 |
| Home | 7-4 | 5-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 80.4 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#178) | -9.6 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#204) | -2.16 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#184) | -2.63 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#189) | 0.405 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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