Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -163 MIZ +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -5.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -5.4 (-7.4) | 142.6 (-0.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -4.8 (-6.8) | 140.5 (+1.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -5.1 (-7.1) | 143.8 (-1.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -5.6 (-7.6) | 142.9 (-0.9) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2026 | MIZ 76 – 74 FLA |
| Mar 14, 2025 | FLA 95 – 81 MIZ |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 82 FLA |
| Feb 28, 2024 | FLA 83 – 74 MIZ |
| Jan 21, 2024 | FLA 79 – 67 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 16-10 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 6-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#26) | 10.5 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#34) | 2.22 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#30) | 2.58 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#29) | 0.606 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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