Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | BOIS -900 FRES +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +3 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | BOIS -17.7 (-20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -14.1 (-17.1) | 137.7 (-6.7) | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -11.9 (-14.9) | 133.2 (-2.2) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -15.2 (-18.2) | 135.8 (-4.8) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -14.4 (-17.4) | 136.4 (-5.4) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BOIS 69 – 53 FRES |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BOIS 66 – 61 FRES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BOIS 82 – 60 FRES |
| Feb 18, 2024 | BOIS 90 – 66 FRES |
| Jan 24, 2024 | BOIS 72 – 68 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-9 | 12-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#40) | -4.1 (#237) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#35) | 0.03 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#48) | -0.02 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.627 (#8) | 0.496 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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