Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +140 XAV -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -2.2 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -0.5 (+6.5) | 142.4 (-4.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -0.6 (+6.6) | 141.3 (-3.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -0.5 (+6.5) | 143.5 (-5.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -0.2 (+6.2) | 143.2 (-5.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | XAV 91 – 84 GTWN |
| Dec 21, 2025 | XAV 80 – 77 GTWN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | XAV 74 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 4, 2025 | GTWN 69 – 63 XAV |
| Mar 3, 2024 | XAV 98 – 93 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 13-8 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-7 |
| Home | 7-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-6 | 2-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#91) | 10.4 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#83) | 2.12 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#85) | 2.52 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#129) | 0.578 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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