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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–14 on winners
spread MAE 7.9
36 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+12.8 | 133.3 | 86% | 59–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 154.5 | 64% | 91–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.3 | 133.6 | 83% | 66–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 149.2 | 60% | 71–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 142.3 | 70% | 62–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.9 | 141.5 | 38% | 70–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.1 | 152.6 | 66% | 66–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.1 | 138.5 | 46% | 60–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.7 | 158.6 | 29% | 69–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 138.5 | 68% | 64–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 135.2 | 50% | 79–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.3 | 144.3 | 88% | 64–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 138.5 | 43% | 67–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.1 | 155.5 | 86% | 75–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.9 | 142.1 | 66% | 66–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.8 | 137.7 | 47% | 67–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.8 | 149.3 | 67% | 76–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.7 | 143.4 | 88% | 54–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 133.3 | 68% | 55–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 132.9 | 41% | 79–84 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.2 | 136.5 | 29% | 65–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.2 | 150.6 | 55% | 83–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 143.3 | 61% | 81–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 162.3 | 70% | 81–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.3 | 140.5 | 29% | 75–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 145.4 | 81% | 85–82 | ✗ |
|
|
-12.5 | 135.3 | 14% | 79–48 | ✓ |
|
|
-11.8 | 141.2 | 15% | 77–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 137.6 | 66% | 77–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.4 | 139.8 | 90% | 64–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 126.2 | 29% | 73–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 137.1 | 63% | 64–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.6 | 159.0 | 87% | 74–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 141.7 | 88% | 67–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.6 | 150.5 | 90% | 55–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 148.0 | 87% | 64–89 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.