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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-1.4 | 139.4 | 46% | 67–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.0 | 126.7 | 91% | 37–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 133.4 | 89% | 59–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 134.1 | 70% | 50–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 141.5 | 47% | 86–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 130.1 | 52% | 63–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.7 | 135.8 | 55% | 72–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.7 | 141.1 | 41% | 92–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 154.4 | 45% | 57–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 139.7 | 36% | 93–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 125.3 | 80% | 49–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 156.1 | 79% | 72–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 136.7 | 71% | 60–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 140.6 | 33% | 56–47 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.1 | 153.3 | 88% | 70–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 143.3 | 35% | 86–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 146.5 | 86% | 59–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 137.1 | 79% | 78–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.3 | 140.9 | 77% | 64–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.9 | 128.4 | 90% | 55–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.5 | 132.0 | 13% | 77–48 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 141.2 | 45% | 83–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.6 | 150.0 | 15% | 86–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 148.8 | 28% | 92–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 124.8 | 83% | 66–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.9 | 142.2 | 49% | 78–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 143.4 | 41% | 82–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.8 | 126.1 | 80% | 60–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.0 | 137.9 | 31% | 68–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 147.6 | 58% | 78–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.7 | 122.3 | 90% | 56–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 123.6 | 67% | 60–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 126.6 | 65% | 54–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 140.9 | 82% | 66–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 141.2 | 73% | 73–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 130.9 | 73% | 51–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 138.5 | 70% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.