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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–11 on winners spread MAE 12.1 48 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
North Carolina Central @ Memphis	+15.3	141.4	86%	51–90	✓
USC @ Temple	+6.0	141.6	70%	76–71	✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Milwaukee	—	—	—	77–71	—
Wagner @ VCU	+4.9	133.6	66%	58–44	✗
Montana @ Mississippi State	—	—	—	49–86	—
Georgia @ Cincinnati	+10.5	133.8	81%	68–73	✓
Hofstra @ Duquesne	+6.9	145.6	71%	73–63	✗
NJIT @ Lehigh	+12.7	144.1	85%	73–56	✗
Delaware @ Siena	+2.0	143.3	63%	83–63	✗
Monmouth @ Towson	+14.9	141.3	87%	79–71	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Toledo	+16.3	138.9	88%	73–81	✓
Ohio @ Cleveland State	+3.7	147.6	63%	67–56	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Michigan	+4.6	153.3	66%	49–77	✓
Campbell @ Duke	+16.3	137.2	88%	56–67	✓
Lipscomb @ South Carolina State	-6.6	145.6	26%	93–81	✓
California @ UNLV	+11.5	136.5	82%	52–55	✓
Alabama State @ Missouri State	-2.2	151.2	40%	60–78	✗
Troy @ Butler	—	—	—	59–70	—
Alcorn State @ Portland	+3.3	141.3	63%	58–62	✓
Bellarmine @ Murray State	—	—	—	59–78	—
Davidson @ San Francisco	+9.6	155.7	80%	60–65	✓
UTEP @ New Mexico State	—	—	—	71–77	—
Boise State @ UC Irvine	+3.8	133.9	61%	50–58	✓
Sacramento State @ Utah	—	—	—	56–89	—
George Washington @ UC San Diego	+15.2	144.9	86%	55–75	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ California Baptist	—	—	—	66–95	—
Texas @ Gonzaga	+6.6	149.7	72%	74–86	✓
Pacific @ Hawai'i	+2.6	142.1	56%	61–73	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lipscomb	-0.3	143.1	49%	65–70	✗
East Tennessee State @ Tennessee	+12.7	146.0	83%	62–94	✓
Yale @ Seton Hall	+13.2	150.2	85%	44–80	✓
Florida State @ Florida	+4.7	148.4	64%	55–71	✓
Binghamton @ Sacred Heart	+6.2	145.9	73%	72–60	✗
UNC Asheville @ Chattanooga	+15.2	151.0	89%	45–75	✓
Pennsylvania @ Bucknell	+5.5	153.0	73%	73–68	✗
South Dakota @ Drake	—	—	—	50–99	—
Prairie View A&M @ Oklahoma State	+13.3	140.8	84%	59–72	✓
South Dakota State @ Stephen F. Austin	—	—	—	83–71	—
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Texas A&M	—	—	—	65–86	—
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Wyoming	+18.3	147.5	89%	45–85	✓
Western Carolina @ East Carolina	+6.6	147.5	73%	79–95	✓
Central Connecticut @ Brown	+14.0	150.5	88%	57–75	✓
Fairfield @ Boston College	+11.1	143.6	83%	64–72	✓
Canisius @ St. Bonaventure	+17.5	139.8	88%	60–69	✓
Western Kentucky @ South Carolina	+2.3	137.9	59%	64–75	✓
Drexel @ Syracuse	—	—	—	60–75	—
Delaware State @ Rider	—	—	—	53–63	—
Morgan State @ George Mason	—	—	—	53–90	—

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.