Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–10 on winners spread MAE 9.0 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina Upstate @ Campbell +4.8 144.1 70% 71–72 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas +15.3 144.9 88% 64–97 ✓
Colorado @ Stanford -0.8 139.5 46% 69–51 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Francis +4.3 152.5 67% 70–67 ✗
Merrimack @ Central Connecticut -0.4 135.5 48% 62–46 ✓
Long Island University @ Mount St. Mary's +2.4 132.1 66% 60–66 ✓
Texas State @ UT Arlington +0.1 129.3 47% 63–56 ✗
Troy @ South Alabama +6.4 135.0 74% 70–73 ✓
Weber State @ Montana -4.4 141.4 30% 67–80 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Montana State +0.4 147.5 53% 93–77 ✗
Oregon State @ Arizona +11.1 140.5 86% 61–70 ✓
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +9.3 138.2 81% 72–66 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Jacksonville State +9.5 143.3 85% 64–76 ✓
Oregon @ Arizona State -2.2 152.6 44% 75–64 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -3.0 129.3 37% 69–63 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech +0.7 137.5 54% 81–63 ✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee State -9.0 130.4 19% 79–66 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Belmont +11.1 162.4 84% 74–92 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +9.7 129.7 84% 43–69 ✓
USC @ Washington -13.6 146.4 14% 69–54 ✓
UNLV @ Boise State +12.2 143.8 87% 66–78 ✓
UCLA @ Washington State -3.1 134.4 35% 73–81 ✗
UIC @ IU Indianapolis +0.8 140.4 54% 69–89 ✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac +2.5 136.3 63% 74–67 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Longwood +0.8 129.7 54% 71–78 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Francis +4.2 150.3 68% 66–80 ✓
Long Island University @ Mount St. Mary's +2.8 131.6 66% 46–64 ✓
Presbyterian @ Hampton +1.4 135.2 59% 57–62 ✓
Manhattan @ Iona +9.6 129.6 84% 67–85 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State +4.6 151.4 70% 70–84 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -0.6 145.1 47% 82–86 ✗
Stetson @ Kennesaw State -5.5 130.7 26% 74–61 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +10.0 135.2 83% 69–68 ✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Murray State +8.6 135.2 81% 60–80 ✓
North Florida @ Liberty +13.9 137.6 88% 61–73 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Marshall +17.1 139.1 89% 79–107 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +7.9 159.8 80% 66–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.