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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–10 on winners
spread MAE 8.2
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-11.4 | 131.4 | 17% | 82–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 135.5 | 36% | 57–49 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 135.8 | 44% | 76–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.0 | 147.0 | 88% | 59–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 144.6 | 54% | 69–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 146.5 | 55% | 61–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.8 | 130.0 | 81% | 45–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 140.8 | 70% | 78–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.9 | 154.4 | 33% | 71–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 156.7 | 43% | 72–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.2 | 152.6 | 74% | 66–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 145.8 | 88% | 68–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 144.8 | 87% | 61–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.6 | 142.5 | 86% | 81–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 139.8 | 78% | 53–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 144.3 | 61% | 68–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.7 | 146.4 | 90% | 59–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.6 | 144.8 | 22% | 76–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 156.0 | 43% | 77–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 142.4 | 85% | 64–96 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 134.9 | 45% | 59–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.2 | 141.4 | 73% | 60–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 146.7 | 58% | 94–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.2 | 137.5 | 20% | 61–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.1 | 148.0 | 91% | 55–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 132.5 | 48% | 54–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.2 | 144.6 | 86% | 50–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 139.2 | 60% | 68–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.6 | 147.5 | 88% | 57–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 148.7 | 64% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 135.3 | 85% | 73–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 134.4 | 35% | 76–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 143.6 | 37% | 80–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 131.3 | 65% | 85–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.7 | 141.6 | 80% | 75–79 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.