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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–6 on winners
spread MAE 7.2
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Penn State
@
Michigan State
|
-1.5 | 142.4 | 45% | 58–60 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
Kentucky
|
-2.4 | 143.7 | 40% | 81–80 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Bowling Green
|
-2.2 | 156.7 | 40% | 71–67 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Kansas State
|
-12.8 | 139.8 | 14% | 80–77 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Vanderbilt
|
-3.2 | 157.3 | 36% | 73–67 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
Texas Tech
|
+5.2 | 143.4 | 69% | 82–71 | ✗ |
Creighton
@
Georgetown
|
-3.7 | 148.7 | 33% | 63–48 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Butler
|
-2.5 | 141.1 | 41% | 73–76 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
TCU
|
+8.3 | 144.5 | 80% | 76–79 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Providence
|
+0.4 | 135.8 | 52% | 59–70 | ✓ |
Pepperdine
@
San Francisco
|
+6.0 | 146.1 | 74% | 76–68 | ✗ |
Tulane
@
Tulsa
|
+5.4 | 131.6 | 73% | 58–48 | ✗ |
Furman
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+1.6 | 139.5 | 60% | 58–64 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Northwestern
|
-0.8 | 141.7 | 45% | 79–76 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
Charlotte
|
+2.0 | 130.5 | 60% | 78–76 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.