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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–7 on winners
spread MAE 7.2
24 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Loyola Maryland
@
Lafayette
|
+3.9 | 142.3 | 67% | 76–80 | ✓ |
Samford
@
Mercer
|
+7.8 | 155.2 | 80% | 82–89 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Colorado
|
+11.9 | 138.8 | 86% | 49–78 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Norfolk State
|
+8.3 | 150.1 | 80% | 74–64 | ✗ |
Austin Peay
@
UT Martin
|
-9.1 | 142.8 | 18% | 75–76 | ✗ |
Abilene Christian
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-14.0 | 132.4 | 13% | 82–69 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Minnesota
|
+11.6 | 147.9 | 85% | 61–79 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Alcorn State
|
-1.8 | 139.0 | 41% | 67–62 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Alabama A&M
|
+11.6 | 140.0 | 87% | 55–56 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Maryland
|
-1.9 | 140.0 | 43% | 73–65 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Kansas
|
+4.1 | 144.4 | 67% | 66–78 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
UNLV
|
+10.3 | 132.7 | 86% | 64–69 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Southern
|
+0.9 | 136.3 | 53% | 57–53 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alabama State
|
+15.3 | 140.0 | 90% | 68–65 | ✗ |
Gonzaga
@
BYU
|
-5.3 | 157.9 | 27% | 82–71 | ✓ |
San José State
@
San Diego State
|
+22.2 | 148.6 | 91% | 54–85 | ✓ |
South Alabama
@
Georgia State
|
+5.1 | 150.7 | 70% | 70–67 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Duke
|
+3.2 | 147.1 | 65% | 93–89 | ✗ |
VCU
@
Dayton
|
-1.7 | 133.2 | 46% | 76–67 | ✓ |
James Madison
@
Elon
|
-7.5 | 138.9 | 23% | 70–61 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Florida A&M
|
+2.7 | 135.1 | 61% | 47–60 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+12.2 | 136.6 | 88% | 73–86 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
South Carolina
|
-7.0 | 151.8 | 23% | 81–78 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
NC State
|
+0.7 | 147.0 | 56% | 77–68 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.