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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–7 on winners spread MAE 9.8 44 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Wisconsin @ Marquette	+5.8	135.6	66%	65–67	✓
Bellarmine @ Duke	—	—	—	54–76	—
Jacksonville @ Georgia	+4.8	143.5	64%	65–98	✓
Valparaiso @ Purdue	+16.8	140.6	88%	61–68	✓
Jacksonville State @ Florida International	+11.4	143.4	82%	70–74	✓
Toledo @ Eastern Michigan	-1.6	141.1	47%	91–74	✓
McNeese @ Stephen F. Austin	—	—	—	76–86	—
Central Arkansas @ Memphis	—	—	—	68–85	—
Stetson @ Miami	—	—	—	60–82	—
South Dakota State @ Bradley	+8.3	131.3	77%	88–84	✗
North Texas @ Mississippi State	+1.0	134.9	54%	63–69	✓
Troy @ Texas Tech	+19.6	133.0	88%	46–80	✓
Seton Hall @ Oregon	-5.1	143.5	29%	70–83	✗
San Francisco @ Cal Poly	—	—	—	88–60	—
North Dakota @ Minnesota	+8.9	147.2	80%	67–76	✓
South Alabama @ Auburn	+7.0	145.8	74%	81–90	✓
Long Beach State @ Loyola Marymount	—	—	—	61–85	—
Idaho @ Sacramento State	+13.9	138.0	87%	57–73	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Chattanooga	+12.8	136.5	86%	72–79	✓
Coppin State @ George Washington	+6.0	146.9	74%	69–85	✓
Furman @ Charleston	+0.9	145.2	58%	81–57	✗
Eastern Washington @ Arizona	+9.0	143.1	80%	67–70	✓
Marist @ Binghamton	—	—	—	68–65	—
UIC @ Ball State	+3.0	136.4	57%	66–68	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ VCU	+8.0	138.7	77%	42–60	✓
SMU @ Dayton	-2.0	147.3	40%	66–64	✓
North Florida @ High Point	+10.5	139.9	84%	74–85	✓
South Carolina State @ UNC Asheville	+10.3	142.8	82%	56–77	✓
Radford @ East Carolina	+10.3	131.7	81%	50–63	✓
Montana @ Southern Utah	+3.3	139.9	66%	74–75	✓
Omaha @ SIU Edwardsville	+9.2	143.0	80%	65–63	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Green Bay	-3.3	139.9	39%	93–91	✓
Lamar @ Air Force	+6.6	132.4	72%	44–59	✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas State	+11.2	141.9	85%	64–72	✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas	+11.7	138.8	86%	61–65	✓
Iona @ Hofstra	+7.6	131.8	76%	82–74	✗
Miami (OH) @ Wright State	-3.8	146.4	36%	47–71	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Providence	+10.5	145.9	81%	67–79	✓
Chicago State @ Northwestern	+25.2	137.6	91%	66–111	✓
Lipscomb @ Arkansas	+20.7	147.7	90%	50–86	✓
Samford @ Belmont	+15.9	148.5	88%	96–83	✗
South Carolina @ Houston	+18.9	131.4	89%	67–77	✓
Illinois State @ Murray State	+0.9	151.5	47%	65–76	✓
Georgia Southern @ South Carolina Upstate	—	—	—	72–69	—

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.