Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | AF -215 LAM +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +15 | 103 | Won |
| Massey | AF -12.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-27.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -6.6 (+8.4) | 132.4 (-29.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -7.9 (+7.1) | 123.9 (-20.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -7.8 (+7.2) | 131.4 (-28.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-20 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 6-10 |
| Home | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.7 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#191) | -6.9 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#110) | -1.69 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#122) | -2.22 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#81) | 0.451 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 21.4% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 40.4% |
| TOV% | 24.2% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 18.2% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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