Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -1600 MSM +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +18 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -13.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (-36.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -8.0 (+10.0) | 138.7 (-36.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -5.9 (+12.1) | 130.1 (-28.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -9.0 (+9.0) | 134.5 (-32.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -8.1 (+9.9) | 139.1 (-37.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-7 | 12-11 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 62.2 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#48) | 3.3 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#64) | 0.84 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#46) | 1.57 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#54) | 0.651 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 61.4% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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