Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -1800 LIP +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +36 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -24.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -24.4 (+11.6) | 144.8 (-8.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -20.4 (+15.6) | 147.0 (-11.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -20.7 (+15.3) | 147.7 (-11.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -17.7 (+18.3) | 140.0 (-4.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2024 | ARK 76 – 60 LIP |
| Dec 16, 2023 | ARK 69 – 66 LIP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 9-6 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#7) | -0.9 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#73) | 0.04 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#83) | 0.03 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#61) | 0.482 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.3 | 4.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 41.9% | 15.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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