Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | PUR -1800 VAL +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -20.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -16.8 (-9.8) | 140.6 (-11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -13.8 (-6.8) | 135.8 (-6.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -16.2 (-9.2) | 139.7 (-10.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -18.3 (-11.3) | 141.6 (-12.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-1 | 6-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#27) | -2.3 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#51) | -0.72 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#30) | -1.05 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#63) | 0.500 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.6% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 49.3% | 24.5% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.9% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 39.2% | 17.3% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 10.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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