Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | HPU -220 UNF +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -18.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -10.5 (+0.5) | 139.9 (+19.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -10.8 (+0.2) | 141.9 (+17.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -11.0 (-0.0) | 142.4 (+16.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | HPU 86 – 79 UNF |
| Dec 3, 2022 | HPU 93 – 88 UNF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 8-15 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 6-6 |
| Home | 5-5 | 5-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#106) | -7.2 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#223) | -1.30 (#221) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#225) | -1.79 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.208 (#257) | 0.439 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 43.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 26.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 4.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 28.5% |
| ORB% | 16.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 40.4% | 13.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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