Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | UNCA -1700 SCST +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +21 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -16.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -9.9 (+11.1) | 140.5 (-7.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -10.3 (+10.7) | 142.8 (-9.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -10.1 (+10.9) | 144.8 (-11.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -11.6 (+9.4) | 145.8 (-12.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2023 | UNCA 79 – 75 SCST |
| Dec 14, 2022 | UNCA 94 – 84 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#229) | -13.8 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#272) | -3.07 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.37 (#259) | -4.67 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.354 (#219) | 0.368 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 39.6% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 6.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 59.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.7% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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