Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | SCST +300 UNCA -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +10 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -3.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -2.4 (-7.6) | 155.9 (+22.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -1.5 (-8.5) | 156.7 (+21.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -1.4 (-8.6) | 155.8 (+22.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -1.3 (-8.7) | 155.0 (+23.0) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2023 | UNCA 79 – 75 SCST |
| Dec 5, 2020 | UNCA 77 – 56 SCST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-26 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 16-2 |
| Home | 4-6 | 13-0 |
| Away | 1-19 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.7 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#336) | -2.7 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#275) | -0.37 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#268) | -0.89 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#281) | 0.459 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCST | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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