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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–3 on winners spread MAE 11.6 26 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
UConn @ USC	+4.7	146.8	70%	61–58	✗
Saint Francis @ Liberty	+9.8	141.5	83%	62–78	✓
North Carolina A&T @ The Citadel	—	—	—	70–78	—
Marshall @ Wright State	—	—	—	80–64	—
UL Monroe @ Louisiana Tech	—	—	—	62–78	—
Western Illinois @ Iowa	—	—	—	58–99	—
VMI @ Virginia Tech	+15.2	148.6	88%	57–64	✓
Niagara @ Syracuse	—	—	—	45–75	—
Omaha @ Drake	+16.8	139.2	88%	66–87	✓
Seattle U @ UCLA	+3.2	146.6	64%	52–78	✓
UTSA @ Oklahoma	—	—	—	66–105	—
Northwestern State @ TCU	+14.0	137.9	88%	68–74	✓
Montana @ Southern Utah	+4.5	145.7	72%	63–64	✓
Idaho @ Sacramento State	—	—	—	55–77	—
Florida @ Boston College	-2.2	145.5	36%	90–70	✓
Arizona State @ California	+2.2	143.9	60%	70–62	✗
Texas Southern @ Saint Mary's	+5.8	131.4	69%	70–82	✓
Saint Peter's @ Maryland	+12.5	140.2	84%	57–90	✓
Fairfield @ Stony Brook	+15.9	147.3	90%	69–72	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Michigan State	—	—	—	76–83	—
Kennesaw State @ Creighton	+12.2	138.3	84%	58–93	✓
UT Arlington @ Tulsa	+1.0	137.6	50%	64–79	✓
SE Louisiana @ California Baptist	+4.2	147.5	67%	66–83	✓
Kent State @ Virginia	—	—	—	64–71	—
Central Connecticut @ Hartford	+7.7	137.2	77%	65–80	✓
Georgia State @ Charlotte	+1.0	152.1	50%	76–65	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.