Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | SMC -2800 TXSO +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +12 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -9.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -4.5 (+7.5) | 133.4 (+18.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -5.8 (+6.2) | 131.4 (+20.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -5.6 (+6.4) | 131.3 (+20.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -6.7 (+5.3) | 134.7 (+17.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2021 | SMC 67 – 58 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 17-9 |
| Conference | 4-6 | 10-3 |
| Home | 9-3 | 8-2 |
| Away | 2-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#87) | 3.4 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#115) | 1.43 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#129) | 1.88 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#137) | 0.748 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 38.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 24.4% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 42.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 79.9% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
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