Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -240 UTA +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +15 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -2.9 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -1.0 (+14.0) | 137.6 (+5.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -0.6 (+14.4) | 142.9 (+0.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -0.9 (+14.1) | 138.0 (+5.0) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#202) | 2.3 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#242) | -0.51 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.37 (#251) | -0.55 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.299 (#226) | 0.552 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 22.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 25.9% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.3% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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