Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +33 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MD -17.1 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -14.1 (+18.9) | 136.6 (+10.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -10.0 (+23.0) | 133.6 (+13.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -12.5 (+20.5) | 140.2 (+6.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -12.6 (+20.4) | 139.5 (+7.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2022 | MD 75 – 45 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 61.5 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#13) | 4.8 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#5) | 0.62 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.16 (#4) | 1.38 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.872 (#4) | 0.484 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 57.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 43.9% | 41.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 25.0% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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