Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | CAL +240 ASU -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +8 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -5.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -2.2 (-10.2) | 143.9 (-11.9) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -0.9 (-8.9) | 143.6 (-11.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -0.1 (-8.1) | 145.3 (-13.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -1.5 (-9.5) | 142.6 (-10.6) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2024 | CAL 81 – 66 ASU |
| Jan 1, 2024 | ASU 71 – 69 CAL |
| Feb 12, 2023 | ASU 70 – 62 CAL |
| Mar 4, 2022 | ASU 71 – 44 CAL |
| Jan 3, 2022 | CAL 74 – 50 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 11-14 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-10 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-11 | 2-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#112) | 5.2 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#129) | 1.07 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#119) | 2.13 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#175) | 0.559 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.6% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 32.6% |
Game Analysis
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