Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Over |
| Money | BC +210 FLA -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +20 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -2.8 (-17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.2 (-17.8) | 145.5 (+14.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -2.4 (-17.6) | 148.8 (+11.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -1.9 (-18.1) | 145.3 (+14.7) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-16 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 2-11 | 9-7 |
| Home | 3-5 | 6-3 |
| Away | 0-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#103) | 4.9 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#120) | 2.13 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#79) | 3.29 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#74) | 0.875 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 48.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 26.3% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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