Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | USC +105 CONN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +3 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -6.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-30.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -4.7 (-7.7) | 146.8 (-27.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -3.6 (-6.6) | 147.0 (-28.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -3.1 (-6.1) | 148.0 (-29.0) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 15-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-3 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#44) | 0.0 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#9) | 1.00 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.90 (#5) | 1.53 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.681 (#30) | 0.538 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.5% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 44.8% | 48.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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