Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -21.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | VT -3500 VMI +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +7 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | VT -19.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-34.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -15.2 (-8.2) | 148.6 (-27.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -11.7 (-4.7) | 146.8 (-25.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -16.9 (-9.9) | 149.0 (-28.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -16.0 (-9.0) | 149.2 (-28.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-7 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 9-4 | 7-7 |
| Home | 10-2 | 11-1 |
| Away | 3-3 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#25) | -0.9 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#4) | 0.14 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.33 (#2) | 0.28 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#31) | 0.542 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.9% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 28.1% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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