Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ECU -650 RAD +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +13 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -15.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -10.3 (+2.7) | 131.7 (-18.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -11.5 (+1.5) | 129.7 (-16.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -10.3 (+2.7) | 129.3 (-16.3) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-11 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 2-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#78) | -2.2 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#53) | -2.12 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#61) | -3.30 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#204) | 0.354 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 13.3% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 16.7% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.0% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 79.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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