Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | HOU -410 SC +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -25.9 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -18.9 (-8.9) | 131.4 (+12.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -23.4 (-13.4) | 133.1 (+10.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -22.8 (-12.8) | 131.1 (+12.9) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 6-15 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 4-12 |
| Home | 15-0 | 3-6 |
| Away | 5-3 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#5) | -1.0 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#34) | -0.24 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#38) | -0.28 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.708 (#23) | 0.510 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | SC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 44.7 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 15.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 26.2% |
| ORB% | 42.0% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.8% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.5% | 26.9% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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