Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | BALL -240 UIC +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +2 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -7.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -3.0 (-1.0) | 136.4 (-2.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -1.9 (+0.1) | 135.8 (-1.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -2.2 (-0.2) | 140.0 (-6.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -2.1 (-0.1) | 137.3 (-3.3) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-13 | 9-13 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 6-10 |
| Home | 7-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#184) | -0.8 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#187) | 1.23 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#165) | 1.26 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#94) | 0.458 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 40.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 59.7% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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