Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | AUB -650 USA +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +9 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -13.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -6.8 (+2.2) | 143.9 (+27.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -7.0 (+2.0) | 145.8 (+25.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -8.1 (+0.9) | 148.2 (+22.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -6.8 (+2.2) | 146.9 (+24.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 18, 2026 | AUB 78 – 67 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#201) | -7.9 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#139) | -1.63 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#133) | -2.96 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#150) | 0.301 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 52.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 45.3 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.3 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 60.8% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 62.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 12.6% |
Game Analysis
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