Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -20.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -12.8 (-5.8) | 136.5 (+14.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -9.2 (-2.2) | 140.9 (+10.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -12.7 (-5.7) | 135.0 (+16.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-8 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#80) | -7.1 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#36) | 0.61 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#42) | 0.56 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#152) | 0.486 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 30.8% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 14.3% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 19.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.40 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 33.1% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 41.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 82.4% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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