Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | MUR -800 ILST +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +11 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -3.8 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -0.9 (+10.1) | 151.5 (-10.5) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -2.3 (+8.7) | 153.6 (-12.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -1.2 (+9.8) | 150.1 (-9.1) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ILST 78 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 29, 2026 | ILST 70 – 65 MUR |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MUR |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILST 61 – 59 MUR |
| Dec 3, 2023 | ILST 76 – 72 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 7-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 9-4 | 3-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#228) | -0.6 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#237) | 1.48 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.76 (#238) | 2.88 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.000 (#264) | 0.645 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 18.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 24.8% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.6% | 35.2% |
Game Analysis
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