Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -28.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | TTU -7000 TROY +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +34 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -24.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -19.6 (+14.4) | 133.0 (-7.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -15.7 (+18.3) | 133.1 (-7.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -22.4 (+11.6) | 133.1 (-7.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -21.4 (+12.6) | 131.6 (-5.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#18) | -3.7 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#170) | 0.79 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#172) | 0.41 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#171) | 0.604 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 39.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.7% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 80.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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