Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -180 UNT +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +6 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -2.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -2.4 (+3.6) | 129.0 (+3.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -1.0 (+5.0) | 134.9 (-2.9) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -0.1 (+6.1) | 134.5 (-2.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -1.2 (+4.8) | 133.7 (-1.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2023 | MSST 72 – 54 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-5 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#127) | 7.5 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#178) | -0.20 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#158) | -0.41 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#77) | 0.505 (#119) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 60.7% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 39.0% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 79.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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