Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -285 UNT +228 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +18 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -6.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -3.9 (+14.1) | 127.3 (-1.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -5.0 (+13.0) | 130.2 (-4.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -5.1 (+12.9) | 131.4 (-5.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -5.4 (+12.6) | 130.1 (-4.1) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2020 | MSST 69 – 63 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 64.4 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#38) | 4.4 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#51) | -0.75 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#27) | -0.04 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#36) | 0.440 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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