Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | EMU +120 TOL -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +17 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | EMU -1.9 (-18.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -1.6 (-15.4) | 141.1 (+23.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -2.5 (-14.5) | 144.5 (+20.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -4.3 (-12.7) | 140.0 (+25.0) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | TOL 94 – 75 EMU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | EMU 80 – 73 TOL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | TOL 90 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 7, 2024 | TOL 91 – 87 EMU |
| Feb 12, 2023 | TOL 70 – 63 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-12 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 15-4 |
| Home | 5-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 1-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#164) | 6.1 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#150) | -0.02 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#147) | 0.35 (#123) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#11) | 0.506 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 19.0% | 42.5% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 65.5% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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