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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–11 on winners
spread MAE 10.1
39 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+7.8 | 141.4 | 80% | 60–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 153.0 | 74% | 79–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.0 | 132.8 | 87% | 50–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 158.4 | 76% | 82–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 126.0 | 79% | 69–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-11.1 | 141.6 | 14% | 82–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.0 | 151.4 | 35% | 71–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 139.3 | 56% | 78–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 142.8 | 49% | 81–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 150.3 | 49% | 85–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 152.5 | 60% | 85–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.9 | 151.9 | 90% | 61–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+22.6 | 151.3 | 90% | 77–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 142.2 | 86% | 74–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 128.3 | 40% | 69–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.5 | 139.4 | 28% | 94–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 129.3 | 84% | 48–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 130.3 | 79% | 55–57 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 146.7 | 33% | 63–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.3 | 142.0 | 85% | 55–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.6 | 167.8 | 26% | 97–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 151.1 | 46% | 96–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.1 | 134.7 | 36% | 69–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.7 | 161.7 | 70% | 94–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.4 | 137.3 | 77% | 64–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 147.1 | 84% | 83–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 150.7 | 83% | 86–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 131.8 | 80% | 62–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.2 | 144.9 | 85% | 71–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.7 | 141.2 | 38% | 82–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 144.4 | 35% | 85–89 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.4 | 139.9 | 38% | 84–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 139.2 | 61% | 75–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 145.1 | 69% | 93–91 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.6 | 147.7 | 76% | 76–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.3 | 146.2 | 19% | 68–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.3 | 142.1 | 79% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.8 | 158.1 | 31% | 75–92 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 153.8 | 47% | 75–89 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.