I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–15 on winners spread MAE 7.8 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cincinnati @ Houston +12.4 135.0 87% 59–67 ✓
Kentucky @ Mississippi State +3.0 155.0 61% 91–89 ✗
Davidson @ Dayton +10.0 133.3 83% 66–80 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Syracuse +1.5 152.0 65% 71–84 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Clemson +6.2 143.0 77% 62–69 ✓
Wisconsin @ Indiana -3.3 145.0 37% 70–74 ✗
Georgia @ LSU +3.6 152.9 67% 66–67 ✓
George Mason @ Fordham -3.7 141.1 38% 60–61 ✗
Massachusetts @ George Washington -4.7 157.5 30% 69–57 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ St. Bonaventure +4.0 142.4 65% 64–79 ✓
Ball State @ Central Michigan +2.6 132.8 62% 79–71 ✗
Buffalo @ Kent State +12.9 144.7 87% 64–76 ✓
Akron @ Ohio -1.9 141.2 41% 67–74 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Toledo +11.6 154.8 87% 75–72 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green +2.6 140.8 60% 66–58 ✗
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan -0.3 139.4 46% 67–70 ✗
BYU @ Kansas +3.2 148.9 66% 76–68 ✗
Valparaiso @ Northern Iowa +12.6 145.8 89% 54–68 ✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State +4.3 134.7 68% 55–73 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Eastern Illinois -0.3 135.9 48% 79–84 ✗
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame -6.5 136.8 29% 65–70 ✗
NC State @ Florida State +3.3 150.9 66% 83–90 ✓
Texas @ Texas Tech +3.6 143.4 69% 81–69 ✗
Penn State @ Iowa +6.9 159.8 74% 81–90 ✓
UNLV @ Wyoming -4.7 143.5 33% 75–69 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Arkansas +8.3 145.4 82% 85–82 ✗
Boise State @ Air Force -11.9 137.3 16% 79–48 ✓
Utah State @ Fresno State -10.9 140.4 18% 77–73 ✓
Nevada @ Colorado State +4.7 138.6 71% 77–74 ✗
San José State @ San Diego State +18.3 138.3 91% 64–72 ✓
American University @ Army -2.3 126.8 34% 73–51 ✓
Boston University @ Lehigh +4.4 139.2 70% 64–62 ✗
Missouri @ Florida +13.6 157.9 88% 74–83 ✓
Rhode Island @ VCU +11.4 143.5 87% 67–88 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State +17.3 149.6 90% 55–69 ✓
Old Dominion @ App State +15.1 143.3 88% 64–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.