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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–4 on winners
spread MAE 7.2
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami
@
North Carolina
|
+12.3 | 156.3 | 88% | 71–75 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
Kansas State
|
+10.7 | 143.4 | 86% | 90–94 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
South Carolina State
|
+8.1 | 136.3 | 80% | 56–64 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
North Carolina Central
|
+4.7 | 139.4 | 72% | 81–93 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Morgan State
|
-4.8 | 142.1 | 27% | 85–82 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Howard
|
+10.7 | 139.3 | 87% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Nicholls
|
+7.9 | 148.0 | 80% | 82–92 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+0.9 | 135.5 | 55% | 84–90 | ✓ |
Alabama A&M
@
Florida A&M
|
-0.0 | 139.6 | 52% | 58–76 | ✗ |
McNeese
@
Lamar
|
-7.4 | 144.3 | 20% | 58–56 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Houston Christian
|
-10.5 | 144.1 | 16% | 91–79 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
|
-2.6 | 145.5 | 32% | 77–70 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Campbell
|
-8.7 | 146.3 | 20% | 100–105 | ✗ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-9.3 | 127.7 | 17% | 51–57 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
TCU
|
+1.9 | 155.7 | 65% | 62–54 | ✗ |
Georgetown
@
Villanova
|
+14.8 | 142.6 | 89% | 47–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.