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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–8 on winners
spread MAE 9.0
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-1.8 | 143.8 | 45% | 67–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+30.9 | 134.4 | 91% | 37–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.3 | 136.1 | 89% | 59–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 137.4 | 71% | 50–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 143.1 | 46% | 86–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 132.0 | 56% | 63–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 140.8 | 53% | 72–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.6 | 144.8 | 49% | 92–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 156.4 | 50% | 57–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.6 | 141.1 | 43% | 93–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 127.9 | 68% | 49–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 156.4 | 66% | 72–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 136.6 | 78% | 60–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 144.5 | 42% | 56–47 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.1 | 152.2 | 88% | 70–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 145.7 | 41% | 86–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 146.2 | 82% | 59–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 138.5 | 82% | 78–53 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.5 | 142.1 | 74% | 64–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+20.3 | 132.7 | 90% | 55–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.1 | 134.1 | 14% | 77–48 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 140.4 | 45% | 83–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.3 | 149.7 | 16% | 86–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 144.8 | 44% | 92–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 126.5 | 80% | 66–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.7 | 144.3 | 34% | 78–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.7 | 145.1 | 46% | 82–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 128.5 | 69% | 60–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 140.1 | 38% | 68–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 150.3 | 51% | 78–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.3 | 125.2 | 88% | 56–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 126.0 | 63% | 60–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 134.1 | 69% | 54–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 139.7 | 83% | 66–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 139.4 | 73% | 73–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 131.4 | 62% | 51–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 143.7 | 71% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.