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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–6 on winners spread MAE 7.3 26 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mercer @ The Citadel +0.1 153.0 47% 71–64 ✗
Belmont @ SIU Edwardsville -10.6 148.4 16% 80–64 ✓
Portland @ Loyola Marymount +4.4 140.3 69% 58–70 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner +18.9 140.9 91% 64–95 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Sacred Heart +7.0 141.4 77% 66–74 ✓
Saint Francis @ Bryant +5.4 151.4 73% 52–82 ✓
Harvard @ Dartmouth +0.4 141.5 48% 60–59 ✗
Kennesaw State @ North Florida -4.4 142.3 27% 62–60 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Charleston +8.9 143.9 76% 86–78 ✗
Delaware @ Northeastern -2.6 143.0 39% 82–76 ✓
Towson @ William & Mary -13.0 138.4 14% 91–69 ✓
Lamar @ Stephen F. Austin +12.1 136.4 86% 78–86 ✓
Wyoming @ Nevada -5.5 144.7 27% 77–67 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Arizona +3.9 150.1 68% 72–74 ✓
Denver @ Kansas City +5.1 136.4 68% 63–55 ✗
Drake @ Southern Illinois -2.3 132.7 31% 60–59 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -2.6 133.0 40% 63–69 ✗
Florida A&M @ Mississippi Valley State -6.4 137.6 20% 78–70 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State +9.8 147.9 75% 74–73 ✗
UNLV @ San José State -3.2 140.0 36% 81–56 ✓
Portland State @ Southern Utah +8.8 139.3 82% 76–86 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho State -12.6 137.3 15% 78–61 ✓
Seattle U @ California Baptist -0.0 142.5 45% 92–85 ✓
Canisius @ Saint Peter's +5.5 135.8 68% 57–65 ✓
Baylor @ West Virginia -5.1 136.7 34% 77–68 ✓
Western Michigan @ Akron +11.9 137.2 87% 73–74 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.