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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–10 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
19 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bradley
@
Illinois State
|
-1.4 | 152.7 | 49% | 65–74 | ✗ |
Purdue
@
Illinois
|
+2.8 | 153.1 | 65% | 96–88 | ✗ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Tennessee State
|
-2.0 | 149.2 | 44% | 64–80 | ✗ |
George Mason
@
George Washington
|
-7.1 | 138.3 | 22% | 76–77 | ✗ |
Notre Dame
@
Howard
|
-3.3 | 146.2 | 40% | 71–68 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
St. Francis Brooklyn
|
-1.7 | 141.2 | 36% | 80–65 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Merrimack
|
+2.1 | 125.7 | 53% | 57–50 | ✗ |
Utah
@
Arizona State
|
+0.6 | 136.8 | 63% | 62–64 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+1.9 | 143.3 | 56% | 67–96 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
Stony Brook
|
+1.7 | 149.8 | 57% | 51–65 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Maryland Eastern Shore
|
+0.4 | 136.8 | 43% | 72–58 | ✗ |
Pennsylvania
@
Princeton
|
+6.3 | 153.6 | 76% | 64–74 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+11.1 | 147.5 | 86% | 75–64 | ✗ |
Drexel
@
Hofstra
|
+5.5 | 149.3 | 72% | 68–71 | ✓ |
James Madison
@
Elon
|
-3.6 | 144.8 | 35% | 67–90 | ✗ |
Murray State
@
Eastern Illinois
|
-19.4 | 129.6 | 12% | 72–46 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Brown
|
+1.3 | 143.8 | 53% | 66–63 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Jackson State
|
-2.9 | 130.9 | 38% | 58–61 | ✗ |
Indiana
@
Nebraska
|
-11.6 | 145.9 | 14% | 78–71 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.