Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -3.6 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -5.1 (+2.1) | 141.3 (-2.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -1.8 (-1.2) | 146.5 (-7.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -3.3 (+0.3) | 146.2 (-7.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -2.8 (-0.2) | 145.3 (-6.3) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-13 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#178) | 6.9 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#287) | 1.32 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#264) | 1.64 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#311) | 0.573 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 63.5% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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