Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +1 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -9.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -8.1 (+9.1) | 137.6 (+15.4) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -7.7 (+8.7) | 137.2 (+15.8) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -7.1 (+8.1) | 138.3 (+14.7) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -7.7 (+8.7) | 139.3 (+13.7) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | GW 72 – 53 GMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | GMU 69 – 64 GW |
| Mar 14, 2025 | GMU 80 – 65 GW |
| Feb 6, 2025 | GMU 53 – 50 GW |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GMU 80 – 77 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#297) | 5.0 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#296) | 0.27 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#290) | 0.33 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#306) | 0.519 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 78.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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