Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +14 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UMES -3.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -0.3 (-14.3) | 137.0 (-7.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -1.0 (-15.0) | 135.3 (-5.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -0.4 (-14.4) | 136.8 (-6.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -0.4 (-14.4) | 137.5 (-7.5) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NORF 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2026 | UMES 74 – 70 NORF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NORF 77 – 70 UMES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NORF 75 – 63 UMES |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 59 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 12-2 |
| Home | 6-4 | 11-0 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 66.6 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#220) | -2.5 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#204) | 0.25 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#252) | 0.29 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#161) | 0.491 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.