Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | TNST -105 TNTC -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +16 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -2.0 (+18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -1.6 (+17.6) | 147.5 (-3.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -1.7 (+17.7) | 147.4 (-3.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -2.0 (+18.0) | 149.2 (-5.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -0.9 (+16.9) | 147.4 (-3.4) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 3, 2026 | TNTC 90 – 85 TNST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TNST 88 – 76 TNTC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | TNTC 77 – 74 TNST |
| Jan 24, 2025 | TNST 89 – 77 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2024 | TNTC 70 – 50 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#314) | -3.3 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#325) | -1.62 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.70 (#323) | -1.74 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#346) | 0.422 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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