Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +8 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -2.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -2.6 (-10.6) | 149.3 (+34.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -2.7 (-10.7) | 154.1 (+29.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -2.8 (-10.8) | 153.1 (+30.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -2.1 (-10.1) | 151.8 (+32.2) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ILL 88 – 82 PUR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PUR 77 – 71 ILL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 ILL |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PUR 76 – 71 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#11) | 18.4 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#27) | 3.12 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#23) | 4.29 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#23) | 0.621 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 40.1% |
| REB / G | 43.1 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 41.1% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 13.8% |
Game Analysis
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