Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +11 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -12.7 (-23.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -8.2 (-19.2) | 149.1 (-10.1) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -10.2 (-21.2) | 148.1 (-9.1) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -11.1 (-22.1) | 147.5 (-8.5) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -10.4 (-21.4) | 148.2 (-9.2) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | JOES 88 – 76 LAS |
| Jan 31, 2026 | JOES 67 – 58 LAS |
| Mar 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 8, 2025 | LAS 81 – 74 JOES |
| Feb 13, 2025 | JOES 75 – 63 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#126) | -6.3 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#150) | -1.50 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#136) | -2.28 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#140) | 0.412 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.