Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PV +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -10.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -6.9 (-7.9) | 145.2 (+1.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -9.2 (-10.2) | 148.0 (-1.0) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -9.8 (-10.8) | 147.9 (-0.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -9.4 (-10.4) | 148.1 (-1.1) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2026 | PV 65 – 56 ALCN |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PV 72 – 51 ALCN |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ALCN 76 – 75 PV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ALCN 71 – 55 PV |
| Jan 20, 2025 | ALCN 78 – 70 PV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 9-13 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#232) | -10.5 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#213) | -3.71 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#221) | -4.60 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#167) | 0.411 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 62.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 38.3% |
Game Analysis
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